Nigeria’s kidnapping crisis has moved beyond a problem of insecurity into a profitable criminal economy that is increasingly affecting schools, communities and public confidence in the state.
A new report by Nigerian security consultancy SBM Intelligence estimates that 7,825 people were kidnapped between July 2025 and June 2026, representing a 66% increase from the previous year. At least 1,142 people were killed, while confirmed ransom payments surged to 7.78 billion naira, or about $5.79 million, more than three times the amount recorded in the preceding period.
The figures offer a stark picture of a country where abduction has become an increasingly lucrative business for armed groups. Yet even these numbers may not capture the full scale of the crisis. SBM Intelligence said its findings were compiled from media reports, interviews and publicly available information, while acknowledging that many ransom payments are never disclosed.
That caveat is important. Families frequently negotiate with kidnappers privately, sometimes raising money through relatives, community contributions or other informal channels. As a result, the recorded $5.79 million should be viewed as a conservative estimate rather than the full value of Nigeria’s ransom economy.
Kidnapping is becoming an economic model
The most worrying aspect of the report is not simply the number of people abducted, but the financial incentive behind the attacks.
Kidnapping can generate substantial returns for criminal networks with relatively limited investment compared with other forms of organised crime. Armed groups can seize villagers, travellers, farmers, students or entire communities, disappear into difficult terrain and negotiate payment while victims remain under their control.
In the northeast, a faction of Boko Haram accounted for about 90% of recorded ransom payments, collecting an estimated 7 billion naira. Two mass abductions involving more than 300 people each accounted for much of that figure.
The distinction between Nigeria’s regions, however, is significant. While Boko Haram generated the largest ransom haul in the northeast, the northwest recorded more kidnapping incidents and victims. That suggests the crisis is no longer concentrated around the traditional areas associated with Islamist insurgency. It has evolved into a broader security challenge involving bandits, criminal gangs and militant organisations.
Schools once again in the crosshairs
Perhaps nowhere is the human cost more disturbing than in education.
In November, 315 pupils and staff were abducted from a school in Papiri, Niger State, reviving memories of Boko Haram’s 2014 abduction of schoolgirls in Chibok, an attack that transformed school kidnappings into a global symbol of Nigeria’s security crisis.
The danger goes beyond the children who are taken.
When parents begin to believe that sending their children to school could expose them to abduction, attendance suffers. Teachers become reluctant to work in vulnerable communities. Families may withdraw children from school altogether, particularly in rural areas where security protection is limited.
The consequences then spread into agriculture and local economies. Parents who are afraid to send children to school may also be reluctant to travel, farm distant land or operate businesses in exposed areas.
As SBM Intelligence noted, the impact of school abductions “ripple[s] through education, farming and public trust.”
A growing credibility problem for government
The latest figures also present a political challenge for President Bola Tinubu, whose administration came to power promising to confront Nigeria’s insecurity.
The government is now facing renewed pressure after ordering security forces to rescue as many as 600 civilians abducted in Niger State last week. The scale of that operation illustrates the difficulty authorities face when large groups can be seized despite years of military campaigns and security initiatives.
For many Nigerians, the issue is increasingly about more than whether the government can rescue victims after an attack. It is about whether the state can prevent the attacks from happening in the first place.
That distinction will matter politically as Nigeria approaches its next elections in January. Security is likely to become one of the defining issues for voters, particularly in communities where kidnapping has disrupted daily life.
The central challenge is economic as much as military. If ransom continues to produce substantial income for armed groups, every successful payment can reinforce the business model and finance future operations.
Nigeria therefore needs more than rescue missions and military deployments. Authorities must disrupt the financial networks supporting kidnappers, improve intelligence-sharing, strengthen vulnerable communities and address the poverty, weak governance and ungoverned spaces that allow armed groups to operate.
Otherwise, kidnapping risks becoming entrenched as a parallel economy, one capable of financing the very organisations threatening Nigeria’s security and further weakening citizens’ faith in the government meant to protect them.